Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.601756 5.441038 6.370250 7.472540 8.741537 10.153639 11.840840
2025-06-08 3.221254 4.315711 5.662990 7.430368 9.673029 12.407860 15.977243
2025-06-15 2.546736 3.791794 5.465951 7.849671 11.118238 15.399122 21.377152
2025-06-22 1.989406 3.255049 5.094853 7.907181 12.026307 17.753081 26.208254
2025-06-29 1.585640 2.826637 4.761449 7.910489 12.794971 19.942312 31.004159
2025-07-06 1.282779 2.476300 4.460758 7.879385 13.460516 22.004018 35.781515
2025-07-13 1.168015 2.411074 4.591766 8.528215 15.227781 25.862186 43.582622
2025-07-20 1.016965 2.244240 4.514313 8.803391 16.402364 28.890261 50.356312
2025-07-27 0.901544 2.118209 4.482280 9.140462 17.701001 32.216782 57.873776
2025-08-03 0.768796 1.926245 4.290756 9.150806 18.414028 34.615164 64.045068
2025-08-10 0.628343 1.684194 3.956438 8.834214 18.483026 35.894578 68.403162
2025-08-17 0.506938 1.455209 3.605761 8.426410 18.317934 36.721734 72.011147
2025-08-24 0.427629 1.311431 3.418651 8.339244 18.787939 38.788315 78.094071
2025-08-31 0.360367 1.181409 3.239446 8.243576 19.232915 40.857619 84.378880
2025-09-07 0.333432 1.154668 3.298763 8.685017 20.835892 45.277138 95.400719
2025-09-14 0.290376 1.069454 3.197964 8.741355 21.621010 48.155815 103.694289
2025-09-21 0.251285 0.984840 3.082063 8.742621 22.281421 50.834143 111.793003
2025-09-28 0.216644 0.903883 2.959676 8.707783 22.852442 53.370415 119.789831
2025-10-05 0.212057 0.924090 3.121628 9.416415 25.208876 59.811720 136.104040
2025-10-12 0.194147 0.891734 3.126929 9.716804 26.633068 64.379078 148.879658
2025-10-19 0.179901 0.868840 3.156102 10.084731 28.255897 69.494373 163.126849
2025-10-26 0.157982 0.808915 3.060432 10.096006 29.003738 72.745442 173.658874
2025-11-02 0.131157 0.718855 2.850043 9.750395 28.815943 73.888967 179.755698